Thomas Bayes 8796faca63 M2: skill contracts, Python skill service, L2 eval harness with baseline

- packages/domain: ForecastRequest, BidOptimizationRequest/Result,
  ReportRequest, SkillReport (+ golden and invalid fixtures, exported to
  contracts/ and regenerated as pydantic models).
- skills-py/vpp_skills: FastAPI service with versioned registry; load/PV/
  price forecasts (same-day-type EWM point forecast, conformal residual
  quantiles — coverage test as acceptance gate); bid-optimization MILP on
  HiGHS (binary block participation, hard ledger energy bounds, exact
  Decimal fit of the rounded curve inside the bounds, revenue distribution
  over quantile paths); report generator whose every figure is a
  {tool_call_id, path} reference, with a verifier. 48 tests incl. hypothesis
  property test that bids respect ledger constraints.
- packages/services: LedgerService.dayAheadBounds (the P7 cascade band
  handed to the optimizer); Decimal resolved once for CJS/ESM interop.
- packages/evals: L2 metrics (MAPE, nRMSE, coverage, direction accuracy,
  naive/hindsight revenue baselines), HTTP skill client, rolling-origin
  harness that pushes each bid through the real ledger, CLI with
  --check/--write-baseline; committed baseline on the SYNTHETIC dataset
  (no historical Hubei data yet — baselines measure the harness, not KPI).
- CI: evals job boots the skill service and fails on baseline digest drift.
- docs/open-questions: A6 (flexibility marginal cost = offer floor); A4/B6
  wired as placeholders. README/CLAUDE.md status → M2 done, M3 next.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01UoYoGYzHkFyv3ALenkRPhA

2026-09-02 06:29:08 -04:00

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Open Questions — 业务参数与待决事项清单

Consolidates every TODO(业务) scattered in docs 03/07/12/13 plus unresolved items from the peer review (brainstorming.md §16). Coding agents: never invent values for items on this list — wire named config with placeholder + an // OPEN-QUESTION: comment (see CLAUDE.md).

A. 湖北市场参数（owner: 运营/交易团队 · blocks M3 policy pack + 07 篇定稿）

#	Question	Config key (suggested)
A1	日前申报窗口开启/截止时间；出清发布时间	`market.da.window`
A2	代理购电申报与虚拟电厂申报是否同一通道/分开建模	`market.channels`
A3	日内市场机制（是否开、频次、截止）	`market.intraday`
A4	偏差考核规则：偏差带、考核价格机制（→ MILP 目标函数与风险口径）	`market.deviation`
A5	中长期持仓对日前申报的约束形式（分解曲线偏差带）	`ledger.da_bounds`
A6	灵活性资源边际成本口径（用户补偿、设备损耗）——报价优化的报价下限；未定前按 0（价格接受者）申报	`bidding.marginal_cost`

B. 包络与风控参数（owner: 运营团队 · blocks M4 envelopes + M5 breakers）

#	Question	Config key
B1	申报包络：价格边界的基准（预测值?历史分位?）与初始容差	`envelope.bid.*`
B2	控制包络：分资源类型的单点削减上限与恢复速率	`envelope.control.*`
B3	包络审批层级 L1/L2/L3 对应岗位/会签流程	`approval.levels`
B4	包络挂起条件：连续 N 次偏差超阈的 N 与阈值	`envelope.suspension`
B5	单日亏损预算（L2 熔断阈值）	`breaker.daily_loss_budget`
B6	承诺缓冲系数 k 初值	`bidding.commitment_buffer`
B7	极端日协议触发的气象条件	`abnormal_day.triggers`
B8	各级熔断（L0–L4）授权岗位与恢复条件	`breaker.authority`
B9	演习样本制度：频率与考核挂钩方式	— (制度非配置)

C. KPI 口径（owner: 运营 + 验收双方 · blocks M5 dashboard）

#	Question
C1	docs/12 §4 全表口径确认，尤其「综合市场收益提升 15%」的对照基线定义与冻结
C2	预测误差 8% 的统计层级（聚合级?分用户?）与光伏口径（nRMSE?）

D. 外部依赖（owner: PMO/省间协同组 · blocks phase 2, start engagement in phase 1）

#	Question
D1	光明电力大模型接口规格：协议、上下文、工具调用、部署位置、网络分区（ADR-0003 假设待证实）
D2	交易平台程序化申报接口协议与联调排期
D3	调度/负荷管理、计量结算接口协议与排期
D4	省级↔聚合单元↔边缘现有协议与时延保证（peer review Q6）
D5	首批转为政策包的湖北规则清单（peer review Q7）

E. 治理决策（owner: 项目领导小组）

#	Question
E1	一期验收形态确认：影子运行（推荐，见 ROADMAP M5）vs 受控实报（peer review Q3）
E2	既有 3060 平台各实体的 source-of-truth 矩阵签认（docs/11 §2 表为草案）
E3	边缘断连策略的「安全曲线」定义权与更新流程

Process: when an item is answered, move the value into config/docs, mark the row ✓ resolved <date> → <where recorded>, and keep the row for audit.

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