power-market-trading-docs/README.md

# Power Market Trading — Research & Design Docs
# 电力市场交易——研究与设计文档

A bilingual (EN/中文) document set covering power-market fundamentals, market
design, forecasting, and trading optimization, with venture-focused research
on renewable-generator bid optimization in **PJM** (US) and trading
optimization under the post-136 market reform in **China**.

一套涵盖电力市场基础、市场设计、预测与交易优化的双语文档，并包括面向创业
项目的专项研究：美国 **PJM** 市场新能源发电商竞价优化，以及中国 136号文
改革后的交易优化。

**Status 状态:** working drafts, v0.x — living documents for internal
discussion. Regulatory and vendor facts date from July 2026 and require
re-verification before external use.
工作草稿（v0.x），供内部讨论持续迭代。监管与供应商信息截至 2026 年 7 月，
对外使用前须重新核实。

---

## Document map 文档地图

Documents exist in both languages (`_en` / `_zh`) with matching section
structure so the two versions can be read side by side; docs marked
**EN only** are awaiting translation.
文档以英文与中文两个版本并存（`_en` / `_zh`），章节结构一一对应，可对照阅读；
标注 **EN only** 的文档中文版待补。

### `primers/` — Background primers 背景入门读物

Market-neutral educational material — no venture-specific analysis.
与具体业务无关的背景知识读物。

**Grid & markets series 电网与市场系列** (read in order 按序阅读):

| # | EN | 中文 | Contents 内容 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | [core_01_how_the_grid_works_en.md](primers/core_01_how_the_grid_works_en.md) | [zh](primers/core_01_how_the_grid_works_zh.md) | Grid physics, the balancing act, blackouts — from first principles. 电网物理原理、实时平衡与停电机理。 |
| 02 | [core_02_us_electricity_markets_en.md](primers/core_02_us_electricity_markets_en.md) | [zh](primers/core_02_us_electricity_markets_zh.md) | How US wholesale markets are organized. 美国批发电力市场结构。 |
| 03 | [core_03_china_electricity_markets_en.md](primers/core_03_china_electricity_markets_en.md) | [zh](primers/core_03_china_electricity_markets_zh.md) | China's market structure and reform path. 中国电力市场结构与改革路径。 |
| 04 | [core_04_market_mechanics_companion_en.md](primers/core_04_market_mechanics_companion_en.md) | [zh](primers/core_04_market_mechanics_companion_zh.md) | Market mechanics companion — clearing, pricing, settlement. 市场机制手册——出清、定价、结算。 |
| 05 | [core_05_trading_under_uncertainty_en.md](primers/core_05_trading_under_uncertainty_en.md) | [zh](primers/core_05_trading_under_uncertainty_zh.md) | Trading under uncertainty. 不确定性下的交易。 |

**Topical primers 专题读物**:

| Doc 文档 | EN | 中文 | Contents 内容 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power grid & AC fundamentals 电网与交流电基础 | [technical_power_grid_ac_fundamentals_en.md](primers/technical_power_grid_ac_fundamentals_en.md) | [technical_power_grid_ac_fundamentals_zh.md](primers/technical_power_grid_ac_fundamentals_zh.md) | Grid structure, AC, impedance, inductors, capacitors, and Kirchhoff’s laws. 电网结构、交流电、阻抗、电感、电容与基尔霍夫定律。 |
| SCUC & SCED | [technical_scuc_sced_en.md](primers/technical_scuc_sced_en.md) | EN only | The two optimization problems that clear US wholesale markets; N-1 security, LMP as dual variables. 出清美国批发市场的两大优化问题。 |
| PJM market PJM 市场 | [market_pjm_en.md](primers/market_pjm_en.md) | [market_pjm_zh.md](primers/market_pjm_zh.md) | PJM explained for readers familiar with China's market. 面向熟悉中国市场读者的 PJM 入门。 |
| Newsvendor 报童模型 | [technical_newsvendor_en.md](primers/technical_newsvendor_en.md) | EN only | The newsvendor problem applied to electricity bidding — underpins the bid loop in `markets/us/pjm/design_models_*`. 报童模型在电力竞价中的应用。 |
| Stochastic optimization 随机优化 | [technical_stochastic_optimization_en.md](primers/technical_stochastic_optimization_en.md) | EN only | Stochastic optimization in power systems — scenarios, recourse, hydro, offering under uncertainty. 电力系统中的随机优化。 |

### `markets/us/` — US market reference 美国市场综述

| Doc 文档 | EN | 中文 | Contents 内容 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field guide 实务指南 | [field_guide_en.md](markets/us/field_guide_en.md) | EN only | Bidding, trading, and the impact of AI — consolidated working discussions, July 2026. 竞价、交易与 AI 影响综合笔记。 |
| Economists survey 经济学家综述 | [economists_survey_en.md](markets/us/economists_survey_en.md) | [economists_survey_zh.md](markets/us/economists_survey_zh.md) | How economists shaped US electricity markets — theory, practice, milestones. 经济学家如何塑造美国电力市场——理论、实践与里程碑。 |
| Forecasting open ecosystem 预测开放生态 | [forecasting_open_ecosystem_en.md](markets/us/forecasting_open_ecosystem_en.md) | EN only | Open US wholesale-market datasets, models, benchmarks, structural tools, and evaluation design for price, load, renewable, and capacity forecasting. 美国批发电力市场预测的开放数据、模型、基准、结构化工具与评估设计。 |

### `markets/us/pjm/` — PJM product research PJM 产品研究

| Doc 文档 | EN | 中文 | Contents 内容 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product design 产品设计 | [design_models_en.md](markets/us/pjm/design_models_en.md) | [design_models_zh.md](markets/us/pjm/design_models_zh.md) | Models A–C (price regime, probabilistic production, DA–RT spread), the newsvendor bid loop, BORD, data/licensing, build order, glossary. 模型 A–C、报童竞价闭环、BORD、数据与许可、建设顺序、术语表。 |
| Vendor due diligence 供应商尽调 | [vendor_dd_en.md](markets/us/pjm/vendor_dd_en.md) | [vendor_dd_zh.md](markets/us/pjm/vendor_dd_zh.md) | Six US autobidder/optimization vendors profiled (Fluence Mosaic, Ascend SmartBidder, Tyba, Gridmatic, Dexter, enspired), comparative matrix, whitespace synthesis. 六家美国竞价优化服务商档案、对比矩阵与空白研判。 |

### `markets/china/` — China market 中国市场

| Doc 文档 | EN | 中文 | Contents 内容 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market & vendor DD 市场与供应商尽调 | [market_vendor_dd_en.md](markets/china/market_vendor_dd_en.md) | [market_vendor_dd_zh.md](markets/china/market_vendor_dd_zh.md) | China market primer (Doc 136/394, mechanism price, MLT–spot deep dive §1.4–1.6, bargaining dynamics), six Chinese vendors (国能日新, 远景, 清能互联, 清鹏, 兰木达, 心知能源), synthesis, glossary. 中国市场入门（含中长期深度解析）、六家中国服务商、综合研判、术语表。 |
| Product design 产品设计 | [product_design_en.md](markets/china/product_design_en.md) | [product_design_zh.md](markets/china/product_design_zh.md) | Chinese adaptations of Models A–C and the full Model D spec (MLT position optimizer) with the hedge-ratio mathematics, build order, open questions. 模型 A–C 中国化调整与模型 D（中长期头寸优化器）完整规格及数学推导。 |

## Suggested reading order 建议阅读顺序

1. **New to power markets entirely 电力市场零基础** → `primers/core_01–05` in order 按序阅读
2. **New to PJM 不熟悉 PJM** → `primers/market_pjm_*` → `markets/us/pjm/design_models_*`
3. **New to China's market 不熟悉中国市场** → `markets/china/market_vendor_dd_*` §1 → `markets/china/product_design_*`
4. **Business/competitive view 商业与竞争视角** → the two vendor DD docs 两份供应商尽调 → synthesis sections 综合研判章节
5. **Modeling 建模视角** → `primers/technical_newsvendor_en.md` + `primers/technical_stochastic_optimization_en.md` → `markets/us/pjm/design_models_*` (A–C + newsvendor) → `markets/china/product_design_*` (Model D math)

## Conventions 体例约定

- **Bilingual parity 双语对应**: EN and ZH versions carry identical section
  numbering; edits should land in both. 中英文版本章节编号一致；修改须同步两版。
- **Chinese markdown bold 中文粗体**: `**` markers are padded with ASCII
  spaces (`文字 **粗体** 文字`) to render correctly next to full-width CJK
  punctuation in strict CommonMark renderers. 中文粗体两侧加半角空格，以规避
  CJK 标点导致的渲染问题。
- **Terms of art 术语**: each report carries its own glossary appendix;
  cross-market contrasts (e.g. BORD vs 两个细则, mechanism price vs PTC/ITC)
  are defined where first used. 各报告自带术语表附录。
- **Claims hygiene 数据口径**: vendor uplift figures are marketing claims on
  non-comparable baselines; private-company data is third-party-sourced.
  Treat accordingly. 服务商"提升"数字为不可比基准上的营销口径，非上市公司数据
  转引自第三方，使用须谨慎。
- **Point-in-time principle 时点原则**: the documents repeatedly rely on
  as-of-date information sets (both for modeling and for market facts);
  when updating, note the as-of date. 文档反复依赖"以当时为准"的信息集；
  更新时请注明数据时点。

## Provenance 来源说明

Documents originated from an extended design discussion (July 2026) covering
PJM public data, renewable DA bidding theory (newsvendor + spread), vendor
landscapes in both markets, China's Document-136 reform and MLT–spot
mechanics. 文档源自 2026 年 7 月的一次系列设计讨论，涵盖 PJM 公开数据、
新能源日前竞价理论（报童模型与价差）、中美两地服务商格局、中国 136号文改革
与中长期–现货机制。