Power Market Trading — Research & Design Docs

电力市场交易——研究与设计文档

A bilingual (EN/中文) document set covering power-market fundamentals, market design, forecasting, and trading optimization, with venture-focused research on renewable-generator bid optimization in PJM (US) and trading optimization under the post-136 market reform in China.

一套涵盖电力市场基础、市场设计、预测与交易优化的双语文档，并包括面向创业 项目的专项研究：美国 PJM 市场新能源发电商竞价优化，以及中国 136号文 改革后的交易优化。

Status 状态: working drafts, v0.x — living documents for internal discussion. Regulatory and vendor facts date from July 2026 and require re-verification before external use. 工作草稿（v0.x），供内部讨论持续迭代。监管与供应商信息截至 2026 年 7 月， 对外使用前须重新核实。

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Document map 文档地图

Documents exist in both languages (_en / _zh) with matching section structure so the two versions can be read side by side; docs marked EN only are awaiting translation. 文档以英文与中文两个版本并存（_en / _zh），章节结构一一对应，可对照阅读； 标注 EN only 的文档中文版待补。

primers/ — Background primers 背景入门读物

Market-neutral educational material — no venture-specific analysis. 与具体业务无关的背景知识读物。

Grid & markets series 电网与市场系列 (read in order 按序阅读):

#	EN	中文	Contents 内容
01	core_01_how_the_grid_works_en.md	zh	Grid physics, the balancing act, blackouts — from first principles. 电网物理原理、实时平衡与停电机理。
02	core_02_us_electricity_markets_en.md	zh	How US wholesale markets are organized. 美国批发电力市场结构。
03	core_03_china_electricity_markets_en.md	zh	China's market structure and reform path. 中国电力市场结构与改革路径。
04	core_04_market_mechanics_companion_en.md	zh	Market mechanics companion — clearing, pricing, settlement. 市场机制手册——出清、定价、结算。
05	core_05_trading_under_uncertainty_en.md	zh	Trading under uncertainty. 不确定性下的交易。

Topical primers 专题读物:

Doc 文档	EN	中文	Contents 内容
Power grid & AC fundamentals 电网与交流电基础	technical_power_grid_ac_fundamentals_en.md	technical_power_grid_ac_fundamentals_zh.md	Grid structure, AC, impedance, inductors, capacitors, and Kirchhoff’s laws. 电网结构、交流电、阻抗、电感、电容与基尔霍夫定律。
SCUC & SCED	technical_scuc_sced_en.md	EN only	The two optimization problems that clear US wholesale markets; N-1 security, LMP as dual variables. 出清美国批发市场的两大优化问题。
PJM market PJM 市场	market_pjm_en.md	market_pjm_zh.md	PJM explained for readers familiar with China's market. 面向熟悉中国市场读者的 PJM 入门。
Newsvendor 报童模型	technical_newsvendor_en.md	EN only	The newsvendor problem applied to electricity bidding — underpins the bid loop in markets/us/pjm/design_models_*. 报童模型在电力竞价中的应用。
Stochastic optimization 随机优化	technical_stochastic_optimization_en.md	EN only	Stochastic optimization in power systems — scenarios, recourse, hydro, offering under uncertainty. 电力系统中的随机优化。

markets/us/ — US market reference 美国市场综述

Doc 文档	EN	中文	Contents 内容
Field guide 实务指南	field_guide_en.md	EN only	Bidding, trading, and the impact of AI — consolidated working discussions, July 2026. 竞价、交易与 AI 影响综合笔记。
Economists survey 经济学家综述	economists_survey_en.md	economists_survey_zh.md	How economists shaped US electricity markets — theory, practice, milestones. 经济学家如何塑造美国电力市场——理论、实践与里程碑。
Forecasting open ecosystem 预测开放生态	forecasting_open_ecosystem_en.md	EN only	Open US wholesale-market datasets, models, benchmarks, structural tools, and evaluation design for price, load, renewable, and capacity forecasting. 美国批发电力市场预测的开放数据、模型、基准、结构化工具与评估设计。

markets/us/pjm/ — PJM product research PJM 产品研究

Doc 文档	EN	中文	Contents 内容
Product design 产品设计	design_models_en.md	design_models_zh.md	Models A–C (price regime, probabilistic production, DA–RT spread), the newsvendor bid loop, BORD, data/licensing, build order, glossary. 模型 A–C、报童竞价闭环、BORD、数据与许可、建设顺序、术语表。
Vendor due diligence 供应商尽调	vendor_dd_en.md	vendor_dd_zh.md	Six US autobidder/optimization vendors profiled (Fluence Mosaic, Ascend SmartBidder, Tyba, Gridmatic, Dexter, enspired), comparative matrix, whitespace synthesis. 六家美国竞价优化服务商档案、对比矩阵与空白研判。

markets/china/ — China market 中国市场

Doc 文档	EN	中文	Contents 内容
Market & vendor DD 市场与供应商尽调	market_vendor_dd_en.md	market_vendor_dd_zh.md	China market primer (Doc 136/394, mechanism price, MLT–spot deep dive §1.4–1.6, bargaining dynamics), six Chinese vendors (国能日新, 远景, 清能互联, 清鹏, 兰木达, 心知能源), synthesis, glossary. 中国市场入门（含中长期深度解析）、六家中国服务商、综合研判、术语表。
Product design 产品设计	product_design_en.md	product_design_zh.md	Chinese adaptations of Models A–C and the full Model D spec (MLT position optimizer) with the hedge-ratio mathematics, build order, open questions. 模型 A–C 中国化调整与模型 D（中长期头寸优化器）完整规格及数学推导。

Suggested reading order 建议阅读顺序

1. New to power markets entirely 电力市场零基础 → primers/core_01–05 in order 按序阅读
2. New to PJM 不熟悉 PJM → primers/market_pjm_* → markets/us/pjm/design_models_*
3. New to China's market 不熟悉中国市场 → markets/china/market_vendor_dd_* §1 → markets/china/product_design_*
4. Business/competitive view 商业与竞争视角 → the two vendor DD docs 两份供应商尽调 → synthesis sections 综合研判章节
5. Modeling 建模视角 → primers/technical_newsvendor_en.md + primers/technical_stochastic_optimization_en.md → markets/us/pjm/design_models_* (A–C + newsvendor) → markets/china/product_design_* (Model D math)

Conventions 体例约定

• Bilingual parity 双语对应: EN and ZH versions carry identical section numbering; edits should land in both. 中英文版本章节编号一致；修改须同步两版。
• Chinese markdown bold 中文粗体: ** markers are padded with ASCII spaces (文字 **粗体** 文字) to render correctly next to full-width CJK punctuation in strict CommonMark renderers. 中文粗体两侧加半角空格，以规避 CJK 标点导致的渲染问题。
• Terms of art 术语: each report carries its own glossary appendix; cross-market contrasts (e.g. BORD vs 两个细则, mechanism price vs PTC/ITC) are defined where first used. 各报告自带术语表附录。
• Claims hygiene 数据口径: vendor uplift figures are marketing claims on non-comparable baselines; private-company data is third-party-sourced. Treat accordingly. 服务商"提升"数字为不可比基准上的营销口径，非上市公司数据 转引自第三方，使用须谨慎。
• Point-in-time principle 时点原则: the documents repeatedly rely on as-of-date information sets (both for modeling and for market facts); when updating, note the as-of date. 文档反复依赖"以当时为准"的信息集； 更新时请注明数据时点。

Provenance 来源说明

Documents originated from an extended design discussion (July 2026) covering PJM public data, renewable DA bidding theory (newsvendor + spread), vendor landscapes in both markets, China's Document-136 reform and MLT–spot mechanics. 文档源自 2026 年 7 月的一次系列设计讨论，涵盖 PJM 公开数据、 新能源日前竞价理论（报童模型与价差）、中美两地服务商格局、中国 136号文改革 与中长期–现货机制。