- packages/domain: ForecastRequest, BidOptimizationRequest/Result,
ReportRequest, SkillReport (+ golden and invalid fixtures, exported to
contracts/ and regenerated as pydantic models).
- skills-py/vpp_skills: FastAPI service with versioned registry; load/PV/
price forecasts (same-day-type EWM point forecast, conformal residual
quantiles — coverage test as acceptance gate); bid-optimization MILP on
HiGHS (binary block participation, hard ledger energy bounds, exact
Decimal fit of the rounded curve inside the bounds, revenue distribution
over quantile paths); report generator whose every figure is a
{tool_call_id, path} reference, with a verifier. 48 tests incl. hypothesis
property test that bids respect ledger constraints.
- packages/services: LedgerService.dayAheadBounds (the P7 cascade band
handed to the optimizer); Decimal resolved once for CJS/ESM interop.
- packages/evals: L2 metrics (MAPE, nRMSE, coverage, direction accuracy,
naive/hindsight revenue baselines), HTTP skill client, rolling-origin
harness that pushes each bid through the real ledger, CLI with
--check/--write-baseline; committed baseline on the SYNTHETIC dataset
(no historical Hubei data yet — baselines measure the harness, not KPI).
- CI: evals job boots the skill service and fails on baseline digest drift.
- docs/open-questions: A6 (flexibility marginal cost = offer floor); A4/B6
wired as placeholders. README/CLAUDE.md status → M2 done, M3 next.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01UoYoGYzHkFyv3ALenkRPhA
125 lines
4.5 KiB
TypeScript
125 lines
4.5 KiB
TypeScript
import { Decimal } from './decimal.js'
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import type { LedgerView, PositionBounds, PositionEntry, PositionUpdate, Timescale } from '@vpp/domain'
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import { PositionUpdate as PositionUpdateSchema } from '@vpp/domain'
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export class LedgerConcurrencyError extends Error {
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constructor(expected: number, actual: number) {
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super(`ledger version mismatch: update expected ${expected}, current is ${actual}`)
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this.name = 'LedgerConcurrencyError'
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}
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}
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export class CascadeViolation extends Error {
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constructor(message: string) {
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super(message)
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this.name = 'CascadeViolation'
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}
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}
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export interface LedgerConfig {
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/**
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* Allowed relative deviation of a day-ahead bid's daily energy from the
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* pro-rata daily share of the monthly contracted position.
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* OPEN-QUESTION A5: the real Hubei decomposition-band rule may differ in
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* shape (cumulative month-to-date band? asymmetric?) — see docs/open-questions.md.
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*/
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daMonthlyDeviationBand: string // e.g. "0.05" = ±5%
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clock?: () => string
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}
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/**
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* Position ledger v1 (docs/00 §4, P7): in-memory, optimistic concurrency,
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* per-timescale views, and the constraint cascade — upper-timescale positions
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* bound lower-timescale writes. Storage adapter (Postgres) arrives with M3.
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*/
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export class LedgerService {
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private version = 0
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private entries: PositionEntry[] = []
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constructor(private readonly cfg: LedgerConfig) {}
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read(): LedgerView {
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return { version: this.version, entries: [...this.entries] }
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}
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viewByTimescale(timescale: Timescale): PositionEntry[] {
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return this.entries.filter((e) => e.timescale === timescale)
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}
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/**
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* Daily energy bounds for a day-ahead bid on `date`, derived from the
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* MONTHLY CONTRACT position (the same rule checkCascade enforces). Handed
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* to the bid-optimization skill as hard constraints so the optimizer can
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* never produce a bid the ledger would then reject. Throws when there is
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* no monthly anchor — same policy as append.
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*/
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dayAheadBounds(date: string): PositionBounds {
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const { min, max } = this.cascadeBand(date)
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return {
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ledger_version: this.version,
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daily_energy_min_mwh: min.toString(),
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daily_energy_max_mwh: max.toString(),
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}
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}
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append(update: PositionUpdate): LedgerView {
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PositionUpdateSchema.parse(update)
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if (update.expected_version !== this.version) {
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throw new LedgerConcurrencyError(update.expected_version, this.version)
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}
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this.checkCascade(update)
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const { expected_version: _ignored, ...rest } = update
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const entry: PositionEntry = {
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...rest,
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recorded_at: this.cfg.clock?.() ?? new Date().toISOString(),
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}
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this.entries.push(entry)
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this.version += 1
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return this.read()
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}
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/**
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* Constraint cascade (P7): a DAY_AHEAD bid submission must stay within the
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* band around the pro-rata daily share of the MONTHLY contracted position.
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* No monthly position for the month → nothing to cascade from → reject
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* (bidding without a position of record is a lineage failure, not a default-allow).
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*/
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private checkCascade(update: PositionUpdate): void {
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if (update.kind !== 'BID_SUBMITTED' || update.timescale !== 'DAY_AHEAD') return
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const { min, max, contracted, daysInMonth, band } = this.cascadeBand(update.period)
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const bid = new Decimal(update.energy_mwh)
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if (bid.lt(min) || bid.gt(max)) {
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throw new CascadeViolation(
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`day-ahead bid ${bid.toString()} MWh outside monthly cascade band ` +
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`[${min.toString()}, ${max.toString()}] (contracted ${contracted.toString()} MWh / ${daysInMonth} days ± ${band.mul(100).toString()}%)`,
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)
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}
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}
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private cascadeBand(date: string) {
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const month = date.slice(0, 7)
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const monthly = this.entries.filter(
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(e) => e.timescale === 'MONTHLY' && e.kind === 'CONTRACT' && e.period === month,
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)
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if (monthly.length === 0) {
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throw new CascadeViolation(
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`no MONTHLY CONTRACT position recorded for ${month}; day-ahead bid has no cascade anchor`,
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)
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}
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const contracted = monthly.reduce((sum, e) => sum.add(new Decimal(e.energy_mwh)), new Decimal(0))
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const daysInMonth = new Date(
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Date.UTC(Number(month.slice(0, 4)), Number(month.slice(5, 7)), 0),
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).getUTCDate()
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const dailyShare = contracted.div(daysInMonth)
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const band = new Decimal(this.cfg.daMonthlyDeviationBand)
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return {
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min: dailyShare.mul(new Decimal(1).sub(band)),
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max: dailyShare.mul(new Decimal(1).add(band)),
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contracted,
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daysInMonth,
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band,
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}
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}
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}
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