381b6d3521
Shadow run (ROADMAP M5, phase-1 acceptance form): SHADOW runtime mode records
bids without submitting them, simulates the market answer from the actual
day-ahead clearing price, dispatches to the simulation gateway, runs the D+1
review, and scores every day shadow-vs-human-vs-hindsight (ShadowDayRecord)
with a lineage-completeness audit. KpiReport regenerated after every day per
docs/12 §4 definitions (C1/C2 placeholders as named config).
Kill switches (docs/13 §8): BreakerService with L0 permit revocation, L1
envelope suspension, L2 loss breaker (mark-to-market, reduce-only bids),
L3 channel breaker (bids fall back to the file channel, dispatch BLOCKED),
L4 AI-off (templates run, no Proposal created); abnormal-day protocol on
EXTREME situations; per-level authority (B8 placeholder); auditable drill.
Runtime: shadow-close workflow, shadow schedule entries, live-data ingestion
through the quality gate, human-bid ingestion, breaker/KPI/shadow endpoints
and insight cards, replay CLI (npm run shadow). Ledger, time series and
streak counters are file-backed so a multi-week run survives restarts.
Domain: HumanBidRecord, ShadowDayRecord, KpiReport, BreakerRecord, SHADOW
receipt channel; contracts, fixtures and pydantic models regenerated.
Services: L2 metrics moved from evals so the shadow run and the harness
share one implementation.
Fixes: envelope/permit validity compared ISO timestamps as strings
('…00Z' vs '…00.000Z'); L2 baseline was stale since M4 (skill_versions only,
metrics unchanged) — rewritten from the live service.
Docs: docs/14 shadow-run runbook (timeline, breaker trigger/authority/
recovery, KPI definitions as implemented); README and CLAUDE.md status.
Tests: 21 consecutive shadow days with complete lineage, KPI report, WIDEN
recommendation produced but not acted on; restart durability; drill; L2/L3/L4
and abnormal-day paths; API.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017wrZgPL9LoKaD69BpEQU4v
65 lines
1.6 KiB
JSON
65 lines
1.6 KiB
JSON
{
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"layer": "L2",
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"dataset": {
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"name": "synthetic-hubei-v0-2026-01-01-120d",
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"sha256": "3aa36eb46906233b1b311ff03a33e7d663f30ae921fc9a1f3f813ab5205c270a",
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"synthetic": true
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},
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"skill_versions": {
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"load-forecast": "1.0.0",
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"pv-forecast": "1.0.0",
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"price-forecast": "1.0.0",
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"bid-optimization-milp": "1.0.0",
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"report-generator": "1.0.0",
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"potential-assessment": "1.0.0",
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"dispatch-optimization": "1.0.0"
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},
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"config": {
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"window": 28,
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"holdoutFrom": 60,
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"holdoutDays": 0,
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"risk": {
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"risk_aversion": "0.3",
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"commitment_buffer_k": "0.9",
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"min_block_mwh": "0.5",
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"marginal_cost_yuan_per_mwh": "0"
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},
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"contractShareOfSellable": "0.6",
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"daMonthlyDeviationBand": "0.05"
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},
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"metrics": {
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"load": {
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"days": 60,
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"mape": 0.041,
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"nrmse": null,
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"coverage_p10_p90": 0.821007,
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"direction_accuracy": null
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},
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"pv": {
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"days": 60,
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"mape": null,
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"nrmse": 0.040938,
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"coverage_p10_p90": 0.772109,
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"direction_accuracy": null
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},
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"price": {
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"days": 60,
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"mape": 0.044013,
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"nrmse": null,
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"coverage_p10_p90": 0.81059,
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"direction_accuracy": 0.962142
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},
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"bid": {
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"days": 60,
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"optimal_days": 60,
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"ledger_accepted_days": 60,
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"revenue_skill_yuan": 7146184.79,
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"revenue_naive_yuan": 6012053.56,
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"revenue_hindsight_yuan": 7154899.25,
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"capture_ratio": 0.998782,
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"uplift_vs_naive": 1.188643
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}
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},
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"digest": "0a6cafb6209114f7c6e064499f63918e8cebe04fa7f65dac252b0d0216a77764"
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}
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