8796faca63
- packages/domain: ForecastRequest, BidOptimizationRequest/Result,
ReportRequest, SkillReport (+ golden and invalid fixtures, exported to
contracts/ and regenerated as pydantic models).
- skills-py/vpp_skills: FastAPI service with versioned registry; load/PV/
price forecasts (same-day-type EWM point forecast, conformal residual
quantiles — coverage test as acceptance gate); bid-optimization MILP on
HiGHS (binary block participation, hard ledger energy bounds, exact
Decimal fit of the rounded curve inside the bounds, revenue distribution
over quantile paths); report generator whose every figure is a
{tool_call_id, path} reference, with a verifier. 48 tests incl. hypothesis
property test that bids respect ledger constraints.
- packages/services: LedgerService.dayAheadBounds (the P7 cascade band
handed to the optimizer); Decimal resolved once for CJS/ESM interop.
- packages/evals: L2 metrics (MAPE, nRMSE, coverage, direction accuracy,
naive/hindsight revenue baselines), HTTP skill client, rolling-origin
harness that pushes each bid through the real ledger, CLI with
--check/--write-baseline; committed baseline on the SYNTHETIC dataset
(no historical Hubei data yet — baselines measure the harness, not KPI).
- CI: evals job boots the skill service and fails on baseline digest drift.
- docs/open-questions: A6 (flexibility marginal cost = offer floor); A4/B6
wired as placeholders. README/CLAUDE.md status → M2 done, M3 next.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01UoYoGYzHkFyv3ALenkRPhA
63 lines
1.5 KiB
JSON
63 lines
1.5 KiB
JSON
{
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"layer": "L2",
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"dataset": {
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"name": "synthetic-hubei-v0-2026-01-01-120d",
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"sha256": "3aa36eb46906233b1b311ff03a33e7d663f30ae921fc9a1f3f813ab5205c270a",
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"synthetic": true
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},
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"skill_versions": {
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"load-forecast": "1.0.0",
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"pv-forecast": "1.0.0",
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"price-forecast": "1.0.0",
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"bid-optimization-milp": "1.0.0",
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"report-generator": "1.0.0"
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},
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"config": {
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"window": 28,
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"holdoutFrom": 60,
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"holdoutDays": 0,
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"risk": {
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"risk_aversion": "0.3",
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"commitment_buffer_k": "0.9",
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"min_block_mwh": "0.5",
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"marginal_cost_yuan_per_mwh": "0"
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},
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"contractShareOfSellable": "0.6",
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"daMonthlyDeviationBand": "0.05"
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},
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"metrics": {
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"load": {
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"days": 60,
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"mape": 0.041,
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"nrmse": null,
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"coverage_p10_p90": 0.821007,
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"direction_accuracy": null
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},
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"pv": {
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"days": 60,
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"mape": null,
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"nrmse": 0.040938,
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"coverage_p10_p90": 0.772109,
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"direction_accuracy": null
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},
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"price": {
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"days": 60,
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"mape": 0.044013,
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"nrmse": null,
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"coverage_p10_p90": 0.81059,
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"direction_accuracy": 0.962142
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},
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"bid": {
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"days": 60,
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"optimal_days": 60,
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"ledger_accepted_days": 60,
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"revenue_skill_yuan": 7146184.79,
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"revenue_naive_yuan": 6012053.56,
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"revenue_hindsight_yuan": 7154899.25,
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"capture_ratio": 0.998782,
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"uplift_vs_naive": 1.188643
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}
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},
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"digest": "4018e32ab695422c613e211aba1392164f3bb9c30076986fdfda220fc9bba047"
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}
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